Box Office Early Weekend Estimates: July 1-4, 2011

EARLY WEEKEND ESTIMATES JULY 1-4
The Fourth of July box office numbers are shaping up to be quite explosive with Transformers: Dark of the Moon leading the charge as expected. The action threequel isn’t performing as well as the second film in the franchise but it is by far the biggest hit of the year so far. Lower numbers were expected for the sequel after the second film was crucified by critics and most audiences. Dark of the Moon has garnered slightly better reviews from critics, but let’s be honest; the reviews mean nothing for a film like this and won’t add anything to the bottom line. Here’s a side by side comparison of both films openings.

Revenge of the Fallen
Dark of the Moon
Wednesday
$62.0M
$43.2M including Tuesday night
Thursday
$29.1M -53%
$21.4M -43%
Friday
$36.7M +26%
$33.5M +36%
Saturday
$40.2M +9%
$30.2M -10%*
Sunday
$32.0M -20%
$24.1M -20%*
Monday
$14.9M -54%
$14.5M -40%*
Total
$214.9M
$166.9M*

*FilmGo estimate

Based on the estimates above, Dark of the Moon’s 6 day total will be down about 22.3% from Revenge of the Fallen’s 6 day total. It should be noted that Revenge of the Fallendidn’t have the benefit of a Monday holiday or premium surcharges for 3D viewings. All in all, it looks as though Transformers 3 will collect between $88-$90 million over Friday to Sunday with an additional $14-$16 million on Monday for a big 6 day launch (including Tuesday) of approximately $166-$170 million. People can complain about director Michael Bay all they want, but the fact remains that he is one of the most successful directors of all time. All the insults and name calling can’t take that away from him.

Two other films opened in wide release this weekend and are generally performing to expectations. Universal’s Larry Crowne written, directed and starring Tom Hanks collected an estimated $4.1 million on Friday and is on track to collect about $17 million over the long holiday frame. The movie, co-starring Julia Roberts, is aimed at adults over the age of 35 and typically they don’t rush out on opening weekend to see films. This should allow for the film to display sturdy legs in the weeks to come and become a sleeper hit. 20th Century Fox’s Monte Carlo starring Selena Gomez collected an estimated $3 million on Friday and should collect slightly more than $10 million over four days. This opening is on par with last summer’s Ramona and Beezus also starring Selena Gomez. Gomez clearly has a strong fanbase of young girls and it will be interesting to see if she can grow beyond that in the next few years.

The rest of the Top 10 is below.

RANK
TITLE
FRIDAY ESTIMATE
WEEKEND ESTIMATE
1
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Paramount/DreamWorks
$33.5M
$88M-$90M 3 Day
$101M-$103M 4 Day
2
Cars 2
Disney
$7.7M
$26M-$28M 3 Day
$32M-$34M 4 Day
3
Bad Teacher
Columbia
$4.3M
$15M-$16M 3 Day
$17.5M-$18.5M 4 Day
4
Larry Crowne
Universal
$4.1M
$13.5M-$14.5M 3 Day
$16.5M-$17.5M 4 Day
5
Monte Carlo
20th Century Fox
$3M
$8.5M-$9M 3 Day
$9.5M-$10M 4 Day
6
Green Lantern
Warner Bros.
$2.2M
$7M-$7.5M 3 Day
$9M-$9.5M 4 Day
7
Super 8
Paramount
$1.8M
$6M-$6.5M 3 Day
$7M-$7.5M 4 Day
8
Mr. Popper’s Penguins
20th Century Fox
$1.5M
$5M-$5.5M 3 DAY
$6M-$6.5M 4 Day
9
Bridesmaids
Universal
$1M
$3M-$3.5M 3 Day
$4M-$4.5M 4 Day
10
Midnight in Paris
Sony Classics
$875K
$3M-$3.2M 3 Day
$3.5M-$3.7M 4 Day

 

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